Who will save Ukraine?

With a severe financial crisis, political instability and social and ethnic segregation, Ukraine is at risk to emerge in a zone from where it will not be too easy to get out. Who will save the country: The EU or Russia? Eugene Chausovsky, Eurasia analyst at Stratfor, who traveled to Ukraine throughout February, as the crisis was intensifying, gave Q Magazine the answers to all these questions.

How would you describe the recent events in Ukraine?

This entire crisis began when Yanukovich decided to reject closer ties – specifically the free trade and association agreements – to the European Union. It was that decision that triggered the demonstrations, which, after violent repression, evolved from desiring closer EU ties to desiring full-scale regime change.

In reflecting about what happened in Ukraine, and also considering the broader political situation in the country for past 10 years since the Orange Revolution, it is very difficult to imagine a reconciliation between the divisions within the country. No politician has been or will be able to bridge all the fractious pieces and factions of the country together, especially not if external involvement will continue (which it will). These divisions are not just political, but also cultural. And this is not only because of the different languages and religious institutions between east and west, but also because they have different icons and heroes. That considered, the deepest symbolism of revolution, and the most problematic – that the people in the square speak for the people as a whole is being tested in Ukraine. Parts of Ukraine were angry at the outcome in Kiev on February the 22. A Russian flag was raised over the city hall of Sevastopol, located in Crimea in the south, over the following weekend. Russia has made military moves in Crimea, but it is very unlikely to intervene militarily in mainland Ukraine.

What is certain is the various crises that Ukraine will face moving forward. One of the most pressing problems for the country is how to address its acute financial crisis, with the country very close to default. While an assistance from the IMF will avoid a default on the short term, the country’s broader financial troubles will remain a key issue. Another pressing problem facing the new government is the security situation in the country, which remains extremely volatile. In addition to the immediate economic and security problems facing the new government, there is the issue of the make-up of the government itself.

Can the events from Ukraine create the premises for a new confrontation similar with the Cold War, opposing Russia and its allies, on one side, and US, NATO on the other side? Will Vladimir Putin and EU, respective, NATO reach a political compromise?

What is happening in Ukraine is of interest to the Germans, French, Poles and Americans, all of whom supported demonstrators and hostility toward Yanukovich. Russia has a deep interest and involvement – for the Russians maintaining at least a neutral Ukraine is essential to the national interest. There are certainly divided views between Russia and the West over the fate of Ukraine, as well other countries on the periphery like Moldova and Georgia, but this is unlikely to evolve into a Cold War type conflict in terms of concrete and militarily-backed opposing camps. Crimea will likely split from Ukraine and become a de facto Russian satellite. With the US or NATO not responding in a military sense, the West could however use political and economic tools against Russia (isolation, sanctions, etc). The result will be a standoff between Russia and the West, which will move the conflict into the political realms as both sides try to shape the makeup of Ukraine and its foreign policy orientation.
Domestically, the Ukrainian government will undergo a decentralization of power to the regions and will likely be too fractured to shift its alignment significantly towards either the EU or Russia, leaving it in a neutralized grey zone between east and west

Yulia Tymoshenko was released, after doing more than 3 years of detention. From your point of view, how will this event change the future of the country? How big are the chances for Yulia Tymoshenko to become the first female president of the Ukrainian people?

The fact that Yulia Tymoshenko was released adds another layer of political maneuvering to the ongoing crisis that outsiders, such as Russia, could exploit. Timoshenko was part of the coalition that led the Orange Revolution in 2004 and was prime minister in 2005 and 2007-2010. She has long been a controversial and popular figure in Ukraine. She has been one of the three major political leaders alongside former President Viktor Yushchenko and Yanukovich. The divisions between these three leaders paralyzed Ukraine for years — the West and Russia played the political leadership off of each other to influence Ukraine. Timoshenko has represented the largest threat to Yanukovich. Timoshenko not only has deep ties within Yanukovich’s own bloc and Party of Regions, but also appeals to many of the opposition groups, especially those loyal to Arseniy Yatsenyuk. Therefore, her release also complicates any political plans for the rest of the moderate opposition, such as current media favorite Vitali Klitschko, who could see his supporters split. However, she doesn’t have support in the east or south Ukraine.

Russia had an interest in seeing Timoshenko freed at this stage. While Timoshenko was part of the Orange movement, she has important and personal ties to the Kremlin, especially with Russian President Vladimir Putin. It was the personal negotiations between Timoshenko and Putin that shifted Russia’s influence in Ukraine’s energy sector. On Feb. 20, Russian Prime Minister Dmitri Medvedev said that Yanukovich may no longer be the Ukrainian leader the Kremlin prefers to work with because he has shown he cannot control the country. The political scene is shifting rapidly, but Timoshenko’s potential political comeback raises the question of whether Moscow sees her as a possible replacement for Yanukovich.

It is well known that Tymoshenko is a pro European leader. Do you consider that she will have both the support of the Ukrainian people as well as the support of the European governments in order to reform the country?

Tymoshenko’s release from prison has been critical sticking point in the negotiations on trade and association agreements between the European Union and Ukraine, with the European Union demanding the release of Timoshenko in order for the agreements to move forward. However, there is nuance to her position. While her sentence and imprisoning was very much political as Yanukovich eliminated a competitor, her ties to the Kremlin are well known and in essence, she’s facilitated Russia’s influence on Ukraine, through the energy negotiations when serving as PM. The West has rallied behind her during the trial and accused Yanukovich of political persecution. In conclusion, she will likely be a key figure in the political maneuverings moving forward.

At what extent can the situation from Ukraine also affect its border neighbors, especially Romania?

For Romania, as for other countries in the CEE, the situation is worrisome. Apart from having to deal with security, economic and social crises at its borders – all of which will undoubtedly have short term effects on neighboring countries, the current situation equals with a proxy fight between West and Russia on establishing spheres of influence. More, Russia has shown a rather aggressive mood towards its neighborhood. Romania also has Moldova to worry about – Bucharest has been supporting the EU future of this fragile state that is also confronting with economic and political crisis. Russia will undoubtedly continue to challenge Moldova’s aim to sign the Association agreement, especially given what has transpired in neighboring Ukraine.

The United States has – unsurprisingly – turned its attention toward Moldova and Georgia. However, rhetoric is one thing, execution is another. Both countries have expressed interest in building closer ties to the West and despite their small size, they both occupy strategic positions on the borderline between Europe and Russia. The West has also called for closer integration with such countries for some time. Ultimately, it all comes down to constraints and timing. While the timing may be ripe for Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia to move closer to the West, the constraints on all involved are simply too big to produce a comprehensive realignment. Despite the recent upheaval and the action still to come, the most likely outcome is an eventual standoff between Russia and the West.